July 13, 2018—The unresolved issue of Brexit—the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU)—continues to present ongoing uncertainty for the UK and broader European equities. Markets have already priced in much of this uncertainty. If the UK fails to conclude an agreement with the EU on post-Brexit arrangements, we believe equities will be negatively repriced. If the U.K.
June 29, 2018—During 2Q 2018, it appears that China equity and currency risks have risen against the background of a somewhat softer local economy. A Chinese state think tank caused a stir by briefly posting online a report warning policymakers that they should take actions to preclude a “financial panic.
June 8, 2018— Global investors view European elections, referenda, and other changes of government through a market lens: To what degree are these political developments favorable or unfavorable for markets? The surprise 2016 BREXIT referendum outcome was, of course, market negative. French, German, and Dutch elections in 2017 were all positive, in that they produced centrist pro-European Union (EU) governments.
May 31, 2018— Over the last week there were significant developments in Italian politics that roiled worldwide markets. We believe some of the market volatility was an overblown reaction to the proposal of an anti-euro finance minister, dredging up Greece-style fears of cracks in the eurozone but in a much larger, more consequential country. The proposal was more political theater than anything else.
February 26, 2018 – Ever since the surprise Brexit referendum in June 2016, global investors have been closely watching European elections for signs that political instability might impact regional economic progress or equity markets. On March 4, it is Italy’s turn for general elections. Italian voters go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies (lower house of parliament) and Senate (upper house).