April 21, 2017—Wilmington Trust has been monitoring several political developments in Europe, particularly the upcoming French Presidential elections, the UK general election and the recent Turkish referendum rendering greater powers to its president. Here we will provide our assessment of these developments.A tightening first round in the French presidential race The first round, on Sunday, April 23, is an elimination round.
February 15, 2017—During 2017, elections will be held in the Netherlands, France, Germany, and probably Italy. Popular support for alternative parties in these countries is rising. Most espouse nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiment. These parties also favor withdrawal from the European Union (EU). In the wake of Brexit, the departure of any one of these “core EU” countries could spell doom for both the euro as a currency and the EU itself.
January 11, 2017–Recent volatility in the value of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the Chinese currency (CNY) would indicate rising concerns about the likelihood of trade disputes between the incoming Trump administration and China. President-elect Trump has criticized China for “eating our lunch.” He has threatened to impose large tariffs on Chinese imports, suggesting that his goal is to negotiate a good deal with China that would be fair for American companies and workers.
December 12, 2016—The incoming Trump administration is planning to propose a reduction in corporate tax rates in an effort to stimulate U.S. economic growth. We believe that much of the “Trump Rally” since the election can be attributed to his proposed policies which include a likely combination of lower corporate tax rates and infrastructure spending.One item on the tax agenda is a temporary reduction of the corporate tax rate (from 35% to 10%) to U.S.
November 29, 2016— On December 4, Italian citizens will vote on constitutional reforms proposed by the government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. These reforms would dilute the power of the country’s Senate, making it easier for the Italian government to get laws, including structural economic reform laws, passed through the lower house Chamber of Deputies.