November 7, 2018—Tuesday’s election delivered the result largely expected by us and the markets: a split Congress, with the Democrats wresting control of the House but Republicans retaining the majority in the Senate. Voter engagement was extremely high, with a record turnout for a midterm election.
October 25, 2018 — Equity markets continue to exhibit significant selling pressure. Unlike the prior corrections in early 2016 and early 2018, the origin of this month’s rout in the stock markets is difficult to pin on any one factor. Instead, it seems to be due to a combination of a slight deterioration in the global growth outlook, concerns about peak earnings growth, and continued trade tensions.
October 11, 2018— Hurricane Michael is not the only thing leaving a wake of destruction in its path. The stock market has also experienced a swift correction that has spared few stocks, sectors, or regions—with weakness extending into European and Asian markets. The S&P 500 had its worst day since March, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell over 800 points on Wednesday.
September 19, 2018— The past few months have been dominated by news flow on trade, but the U.S./China trade spat has stolen the most headlines and dominated market sentiment. Emerging market equities and the U.S. dollar have fluctuated in concert with U.S./China trade developments. (Harsher headlines have been accompanied by safe-haven flows to the U.S. dollar, which have put extra downward pressure on EM equities and currencies.
September 18, 2018—On Monday night the latest shots were taken from both sides in the growing U.S./China trade war, and global equities on Tuesday are…up? Not only that, but S&P 500 sectors thought to be most exposed to trade, including industrials and materials, are also in the green at the time of writing. A possible explanation for this is investor complacency when it comes to tariffs.