May 6, 2019 – Risk markets were jolted awake on Monday morning, as U.S.–China trade risks resurfaced. On Sunday afternoon, President Trump posted on Twitter that he would be ratcheting up tariffs on China beginning Friday, May 10, if a deal is not reached by then. Specifically, the threat is to raise existing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S.
March 22, 2019—On Friday, the slope of the Treasury yield curve inverted between the 10-year and 3-month Treasuries (in other words, the yield on a 3-month Treasury exceeded that of a 10-year Treasury), with the 10-year yield falling to as low as 2.42% intraday—the lowest since the start of the year—and the 3-month yield holding fairly steady at 2.45% (Figure 1). Financial media outlets sounded the alarm bells, and equity markets sold off sharply by mid-day.
February 26, 2019— Two nights ago, President Trump indicated in a Twitter post that he would be extending the deadline for an escalation of tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. There were no details on how long the deadline would extend, but the message was clear: President Trump is keen to get a deal with China.