February 4, 2019—Financial markets have been quite volatile over the past four months, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% from September to December of 2018 on concerns about politics, the Federal Reserve, and global growth. During that time—as is our modus operandi when the headline noise risks overwhelming all other considerations—we kept our focus on economic fundamentals and maintained the view that the U.S. equity market was not reflecting those fundamentals.
Our 2019 forecast for markets, economies, and portfolios.Horizontal digitization of technology across economic sectorsLabor productivity’s race against the clockRates and the global debt super cycleTwenty years ago, MSCI and S&P Dow Jones indices developed the Global Industry Classification Standard and defined sectors and industries for the equities market more or less as we know them today.
January 4, 2019 – The past year has no doubt been challenging for investors in light of the difficulty of assessing political risks, conflicting economic signals, and swift reversals in equity market sentiment. Like many investors, we were caught off guard by the violent market correction in the fourth quarter—a drop of almost 20% between September and December. However, despite continued risks, at this point we think the equity market is set up to deliver stronger returns in 2019.