As we begin 2022, our economic and market views hinge on the interplay among the public health situation, inflationary pressures, and monetary policy. The COVID-19 Omicron variant has thrown yet another roadblock into our earlier expectations for economic normalization and recovery of the ailing services sector. However, the latest viral strain will serve to delay, not derail, our expectations for a reversal in the relative dominance of the goods side of the economy over services.
Key takeaways from this publication:We expect GDP growth to moderate to 2.4% in 2022 from its rapid pace in 2021 (5.7%). However, a downside scenario where oil prices remain elevated at $125 per barrel (WTI) on average in 2022 would bring our forecast down to 1.8%.A tech-led business capital expenditure (capex) recovery is underway and separates the overall performance of business spending in this cycle compared with previous cycles.
December 8—Employees and job-seekers are very much in the driver’s seat in today’s high-demand low-supply labor market—a severe issue punctuated by the November jobs report. And the labor participation rate remains a critical factor in trying to dimension the long-term trajectory of markets and inflation.