March 25, 2022 — An important discipline in our investment work is portfolio risk management. This can mean adjusting position sizes of securities, adding portfolio hedges, or recognizing that the market is not appropriately pricing risks to the upside or downside. There is no question that economic risks have risen significantly in recent weeks, yet the S&P 500 is less than 6% below its all-time high.
March 18, 2022—William McChesney Martin Jr., former Federal Reserve (Fed) chair from 1951–1970, is credited with the now-famous “punchbowl” analogy, referring to the Fed as “the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”1 Today, the Fed finds itself in the position of taking away the punchbowl again, but in the midst of a party that has been raging, rather than just warming up.
March 15, 2022—The international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been nothing less than swift and severe. The global community has rallied around Ukraine, cutting off Russia’s access to financial markets, consumers, and suppliers. As a result, the Russian ruble has devalued by over 30%.