November 4, 2016—Job growth came in at 161,000 in October, just slightly higher than the 150,000 we had predicted. This is also very much in line with the ADP employment report from earlier in the week, which said 147,000. We have pointed out in past posts that the ADP report might be better at showing the month-over-month tracking as it has been less volatile than the official jobs report.
October 28, 2016—U.S. economic growth returned to an encouraging 2.9% in the third quarter of 2016 following three consecutive disappointing readings. As we had expected, there was a significant slowdown in consumer spending to an annualized rate of 2.1%; that had been 4.3% in the second quarter. The slowdown coincided with a slowdown in job growth and was largely expected based on monthly reports on consumer spending that were already available.
October 24, 2016–Given the market volatility that followed the unexpected “leave” outcome in the U.K.’s Brexit referendum, it is understandable that global investors would be concerned about any European referendum. Hence, a great deal of global investor attention has turned to an Italian referendum scheduled for December 4.The question on the ballot is whether to strip legislative powers from Italy’s regionally elected Senate.