October 14, 2019—The overall direction of the U.S.–China trade conflict is so central to our economic outlook that waiting to hear the outcome of last week’s trade negotiations felt a lot like the acute anticipation of waiting for a new baby to arrive.
In the October issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, presents the firm’s outlook and explains the top political tensions that could impact markets and tip the scale toward a recession and what would signal the need to reduce the neutral equities weighting in portfolios.
September 25, 2019—Despite nearly a year and a half of simmering (and at times boiling) trade tensions, the U.S. economy has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to 2018. Much of the economy’s resilience has stemmed from the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP growth. Though businesses have pared back investment in the face of ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, consumers have so far remained largely unfazed by the trade war.