January 17, 2020 — On January 15, President Trump and Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China Liu He signed a Phase 1 trade deal, bringing a hiatus—though likely not an end—to two years (almost to the day) of tariff threats and levies on goods traded between the U.S. and China.The Phase 1 deal covered several areas, some more fully than others.
Our 2020 forecast discusses the interplay of productivity, populism, and portfolios. We look at solving the productivity puzzle.We discuss productivity driving populism.Our forecast also looks at testing the limits of policy.Investing is a data-driven process. We comb through economic and market information and use the data as clues that help lead us to a prudent investment strategy.
In the November issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth delves into the reasons why he and his team feel comfortable reverting to an overweight position in stocks.He points to a subtle but important receding of downside risks in recent weeks across three critical domains—policy, global economic data, and corporate earnings.