In the April issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, where he sorts through a bevy of mixed economic data and brings clarity to the various leading—or perhaps misleading—indicators in determining how heavily to weigh each and whether to conclude that we are on the cusp of a recession.
March 8, 2019— The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets yesterday with an earlier-than-expected announcement of policies intended to support growth in the face of persistent downside risks to the eurozone economy. The ECB’s actions might suggest the possibility of reacceleration in the eurozone economy after a marked slowdown in 2018.
March 8, 2019— The February jobs report was just plain awful. With a Bloomberg median expectation of 180,000 jobs added, and our own higher expectation of 200,000, the shockingly low figure of just 20,000 had many of us thinking we were looking at a typo. Along with some other weak data on retail sales and business spending, the weak jobs figure will certainly drive discussions of whether we are coming up on the end of the expansion.