U.S. GDP Forecast: Stimulus, Savings, and the Path Forward

Luke Tilley |
Wilmington Wire
The 2020 Stimulus check. Surrounded with 100 dollar bills.  Sent to US citizens during the covid-19/coronavirus pandemic

May 17, 2021—As my colleague Meghan Shue said a few weeks ago, the economy has been on a wild ride (much like a Hot Wheels track) and we are expecting strong growth in the second half of 2021. Stimulus, consumer spending of savings, and business capital expenditures (capex) will be enough to push full-year growth of 7.6% in 2021 in our view, with a higher likelihood of exceeding that figure than of falling short.

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Disappointing Jobs Report Does Not Change the Outlook

Rhea Thomas and Luke Tilley |
Wilmington Wire

Rhea Thomas, Senior Economist, Wilmington Trust Investment AdvisorsMay 7, 2021—Markets were abuzz at 8:29 Friday morning ahead of the jobs report with official consensus forecasts of 1 million new jobs added in the month of April and “whisper expectations” (whatever those are) of 1.5 million. At 8:30 those expectations were thoroughly dashed upon the announcement of just 266,000 new jobs added and downward revisions to previous months.

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Capital Perspectives May 2021

Tony Roth |
Investment Management
Capital Perspectives

Earnings season is a key time for market participants. Even for long-term investors like us, who are not in the practice of aggressively trading securities before or after earnings announcements, it is an informative few weeks. The microeconomy meets the macro, and companies either confirm or challenge what we’re seeing from other economic data. Direct commentary from management is critical, particularly at watershed moments in the business cycle.

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