January 28, 2022—Equity markets stumbled out of the gate in 2022 with U.S. tech-related shares hit hardest. Several factors are driving elevated volatility and investor angst, including geopolitics, disappointing earnings, and increased hawkishness from central banks. While equity market corrections can be unsettling, they can also provide opportunities for long-term investors.
In the January issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth discusses the inflation trajectory—the single most important variable shaping the economic and market outlook in 2022. A pivotal element impacting the demand and supply sides of the inflation equation is the long‑awaited rotation from goods consumption to services.
Key takeaways from this publication:We expect GDP growth to moderate to 2.4% in 2022 from its rapid pace in 2021 (5.7%). However, a downside scenario where oil prices remain elevated at $125 per barrel (WTI) on average in 2022 would bring our forecast down to 1.8%.A tech-led business capital expenditure (capex) recovery is underway and separates the overall performance of business spending in this cycle compared with previous cycles.
