April 9, 2021Recent supply chain disruptions are likely to add to near-term inflation pressures by constraining the supply of goods and services in the economy, just as demand is set to bounce back.Longer-term inflation will remain dependent on the interaction of consumer and market inflation expectations, and the Fed’s new approach to monetary policy.
March 26, 2021—We are currently overweight emerging markets equities—including Chinese equities. Four pillars support our position. First is our view that the vaccines have prompted a cyclical rally that is, in general, constructive for global equities. Second, we believe emerging markets will see faster economic growth than developed markets. Third, the Asia ex-Japan region, including China, has so far successfully managed the COVID-19 crisis, in our opinion.
March 19, 2021—All’s quiet (for now) on the inflationary front. While we project a lift in the next few months, take it with a grain of salt, as the year-over-year comparison is to a pandemic-induced economic shutdown. Down the road, we anticipate higher inflation approaching 3%, but risk is to the upside—as we expect an improving economy and a largely vaccinated nation back in stores, with money in their pockets.