May 17, 2019 – This week’s nearly round trip in stock markets serves as yet another reminder that it is incredibly difficult and misguided to try to predict short-term movements in the financial markets. After a steep -2.5% drop in the S&P 500 on Monday, in response to an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the market clawed its way back and was set to close flat on the week as of Thursday afternoon.
May 10, 2019 – President Trump raised tariffs on U.S. imports from China today, as he warned he would this past Sunday on Twitter. Following months of signs that both sides were progressing toward an amicable agreement, that narrative was upended by Trump’s tweet, which vaguely alluded to “attempt[s] to renegotiate” by the Chinese. At first it was not clear whether the president was blustering for bluster’s sake, or if the negotiations had truly hit the rocks.
In the May issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, where he talks about the changes taking place on the global economic growth trajectory that have prompted his team to reevaluate its world view, what it means for the stock market in general, and the weighting on international developed equities, in particular.