October 14, 2019—The overall direction of the U.S.–China trade conflict is so central to our economic outlook that waiting to hear the outcome of last week’s trade negotiations felt a lot like the acute anticipation of waiting for a new baby to arrive.
September 30, 2019—The equity risk premium (ERP) refers to the (expected) return of a broad equity index in excess of some fixed income alternative. The ERP plays a critical role for any investor in that it affects savings and spending behavior as well as the all-important allocation decision between equities and bonds.
September 25, 2019—Despite nearly a year and a half of simmering (and at times boiling) trade tensions, the U.S. economy has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to 2018. Much of the economy’s resilience has stemmed from the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP growth. Though businesses have pared back investment in the face of ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, consumers have so far remained largely unfazed by the trade war.