June 21, 2022—The market has been throttled by upside surprises to inflation, downside surprises to broader economic data, and a Fed scrambling to catch up before inflationary expectations run away. Pessimism is piling up among consumers, business executives, investors, and economists. We remain in the “no recession” camp over the next 12 months but recognize risks clouding the economic view.
June 17, 2022 — Even before the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked its target interest rate by 0.75% this week, there was plenty of debate on whether the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession or able to avoid one.
May 16, 2022—Investors continue to be whipsawed by equity market volatility. The S&P 500 dropped 4.8% last week through mid-day Thursday before bouncing 4% to finish the week down just 1%. The S&P 500 has now logged six straight weeks of declines.In our client webinar last week, we explored whether the market volatility is the result of a growth scare or a prelude to a recession. On the economic side, our assessment is that inflation has peaked, and U.S.