August 9, 2022—A pivotal earnings season is nearly in the books, and the results have given fodder for the bulls. The S&P 500 index is up 9% since earnings season kicked off on July 16. Importantly, this is also a period that has coincided with declining energy prices, lower interest rates, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting for which market participants exhausted themselves reading between the lines.
June 21, 2022—The market has been throttled by upside surprises to inflation, downside surprises to broader economic data, and a Fed scrambling to catch up before inflationary expectations run away. Pessimism is piling up among consumers, business executives, investors, and economists. We remain in the “no recession” camp over the next 12 months but recognize risks clouding the economic view.
June 17, 2022 — Even before the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked its target interest rate by 0.75% this week, there was plenty of debate on whether the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession or able to avoid one.