December 20, 2018 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the target Fed Funds rate as expected yesterday by 25 basis points from 2.25% to 2.50%. The statement and press conference suggested that the outlook for the U.S. economy was one of decelerating but still solid growth, underscored by labor market tightness. However, it also highlighted, as we expected, that the Fed will likely have to slow its pace of hikes in 2019 and is more uncertain about the path of hikes going forward.
December 18, 2018 – Many of our clients are familiar with our economics-led investment process. It is essentially grounded in a view of the economic landscape, which we believe informs and drives financial markets over the long term.
December 7, 2018 – The continued volatility in equity markets along with several other market signals have whipsawed the expectations for another Fed rate hike at their final meeting of the year on December 19. The probability of that hike as measured by fixed income traders in the Fed Funds Futures market has in recent weeks been as high as 80%, but as recently as this past Tuesday, December 4, when the S&P 500 fell 3.