Key takeaways from this publication:We expect GDP growth to moderate to 2.4% in 2022 from its rapid pace in 2021 (5.7%). However, a downside scenario where oil prices remain elevated at $125 per barrel (WTI) on average in 2022 would bring our forecast down to 1.8%.A tech-led business capital expenditure (capex) recovery is underway and separates the overall performance of business spending in this cycle compared with previous cycles.
December 20, 2021 – As I’ve watched the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve get more hawkish over the past months I’m reminded of my days playing lacrosse, specifically being back on defense. When your opponent has the ball you should be in a ready position with your weight on the balls of your feet, evenly distributed, and be ready to react to your left or to your right depending on which way the attacker moves.
December 1, 2021 – Fears around the newest COVID-19 variant, Omicron, have jolted investors out of a holiday lull, sending risk assets lower, bond prices higher, and whipsawing expectations for future Fed policy. We see the Omicron variant as widening the range of possible economic and market outcomes over the next three to six months.