
Key takeaways from this publication:We expect GDP growth to moderate to 2.4% in 2022 from its rapid pace in 2021 (5.7%). However, a downside scenario where oil prices remain elevated at $125 per barrel (WTI) on average in 2022 would bring our forecast down to 1.8%.A tech-led business capital expenditure (capex) recovery is underway and separates the overall performance of business spending in this cycle compared with previous cycles.