August 23, 2016—For quite some time we have had an outlook for inflation that is higher than the market pricing. Much of the short-term outlook is based on our expectations for energy prices. Energy has been a significant drag on overall inflation since the collapse of crude oil in 2014–2015.We are quickly approaching the time when energy prices are more likely to be adding to headline inflation instead of detracting.
August 12, 2016—In the soon-to-be-released August version of the Capital Perspectives presentation, we have redesigned the way our S&P 500 price target is determined to account for the extremely low interest rate environment inspired by central banks. Through this, we have a visual representation of how the financial markets are being influenced by the broad-based efforts of central banks globally.
August 5, 2016—Total nonfarm job growth in July came in at 255,000, well above the Bloomberg consensus and beating even the greatest of expectations. In addition, upward revisions to May and June brought those months up by a combined 18,000. Although the strong growth is quite welcome, we don’t expect the robust figures to continue because of the tightness in the labor market, as we have been noting for quite some time. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%.