March 22, 2019—On Friday, the slope of the Treasury yield curve inverted between the 10-year and 3-month Treasuries (in other words, the yield on a 3-month Treasury exceeded that of a 10-year Treasury), with the 10-year yield falling to as low as 2.42% intraday—the lowest since the start of the year—and the 3-month yield holding fairly steady at 2.45% (Figure 1). Financial media outlets sounded the alarm bells, and equity markets sold off sharply by mid-day.
March 8, 2019— The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets yesterday with an earlier-than-expected announcement of policies intended to support growth in the face of persistent downside risks to the eurozone economy. The ECB’s actions might suggest the possibility of reacceleration in the eurozone economy after a marked slowdown in 2018.
In the March issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, where he explores the shift in prioritization among the three major geopolitical and economic risks facing markets right now against a broader backdrop of slowing global growth.