In the December issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature As Trade Goes, So Go the Markets in On the Record.

  • Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth discusses how much of a hold the U.S.-China trade negotiations have on the markets right now.
  • He explains how investors remain completely transfixed with the ebbs and flows of the U.S.-China trade negotiations to the point where headlines are the difference between an up versus a down day for the markets.
  • In lieu of our monthly “In Focus” article, we ask that your attention be turned to our recently released 2020 Capital Markets Forecast, Market Tug of War: The interplay of productivity, populism, and portfolios.

You do not have to be a certified market technician or a veteran trader to notice how much of a hold the U.S.-China trade negotiations have on the markets at the moment. Despite a number of other material risks out there—including those related to global manufacturing data, earnings reports, the UK election, U.S. politics, Hong Kong unrest (the list goes on)—trade headlines continue to dominate market activity. Last month we became more constructive on the market and economic outlook and added modestly to risk, but we are hesitant to do so further at this moment for one important reason: It’s all about trade. Yet, at the same time, it has nothing to do with trade. Allow me to explain.

Please see important disclosures at the end of the article.

Download Article