In the March issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:
- On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, where he continues his discussion on the global impacts of the coronavirus and how the economy and markets may—or may not—respond.
- In Focus shares a conversation with Tony Roth and Dr. Amesh Adalja, a Fellow with the Infectious Disease Society of America, regarding the coronavirus.
- Investment positioning and hedge funds asset class overview.
“The global economy faces its biggest danger since the financial crisis.” —The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
The COVID-19 coronavirus poses a grave risk to human health and life globally. The human element is incredibly poignant, but it is the economic element with which we as investors must also be concerned. The quote above, directly from a March 2, 2020, presentation and press conference on the OECD website, illustrates the economic severity of what is likely already a global pandemic. Investors have taken notice and, in a matter of days, repriced the outlook from one of optimism to increasing pessimism. How much pessimism is priced into equities at this point is difficult to say; how much should be priced in is an even more challenging question. Given heightened uncertainty around the global economic outlook, we reduced our equities overweight to a modest underweight, choosing to err on the side of caution and protect capital against a potentially deeper and more protracted market rout than we have seen so far.
Please see important disclosures at the end of the article.