September 20, 2021—Recent economic data have been on the weaker side and is likely playing a part in the mini-swoon we’ve seen in markets, with the S&P 500 index down about 2% from a recent all-time high in early September. The softening in data is in large part due to the spread of the Delta variant in July and August. We are reducing our outlook for the U.S. economy for the remainder of 2021 but still expect solid growth in 2022.
August 9, 2021—Last week’s jobs report was strong for the second month in a row and immediately prompted questions about how it may affect the Federal Reserve’s dovish posture. With 1.9 million combined jobs added in June and July, gross domestic product (GDP) surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2Q 2021, and inflation at the highest in decades, it’s natural to think the Fed would normalize policy soon.
June 28, 2021—The Federal Reserve’s latest announcement of anticipated rate hike projections, has the markets abuzz with activity. But has the story really changed? Chief Economist Luke Tilley shares his thoughts on what the announcement means for markets and the trajectory for inflation.
June 8, 2021—Chief Economist Luke Tilley explains our expectations for the path of inflation through the end of this year and into 2022 for the following reasons:The pandemic and stimulus were a one-shot deal—As the economy reopens and people begin spending on services, much of the inflation wil…
May 28, 2021The path for inflation is the most hotly debated issue in markets right now, both because of the direct impact it will have on markets and also whether it will force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates earlier than expected.