About the Author

Luke Tilley

Executive Vice President

Luke is Chief Economist and Head of Asset Allocation and Quantitative Services for Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors (WTIA), a part of the M&T Bank family. Luke is also a member of WTIA’s Investment Committee.

Prior to joining Wilmington Trust in 2015, Luke was an officer and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Earlier in his career, Luke worked as a senior economist at IHS Global Insight (now IHS Markit) and as an economist for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Luke holds a Ph.D. in economics from Temple University and a bachelor’s degree in economics and history from James Madison University. He is a former adjunct faculty member at Temple University and formerly served on the board of directors of the Pennsylvania Economic Association. In addition, Luke is former president of the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics, a chapter of the National Association for Business Economics.

By the Author

Recession or No Recession? Depends on your Definition

Rhea Thomas and Luke Tilley |
Wilmington Wire
Business arrow increase of success graph and growth stock market earnings financial on profit income background with diagram chart investment.

July 26, 2022—It’s hard to avoid the “R” word these days. The question of whether the economy is headed toward a recession has been front and center, almost superseding concerns about inflation. During our May webinar “Growth Scare or Recession?”, we explained our reasoning for the U.S. to avoid the latter, but since that time the risks have risen noticeably.


2022 Economic Halftime Report: Has inflation hit its peak?

Luke Tilley and Tony Roth |
Capital Considerations with Tony Roth

July 13—Calendar-wise, we’ve turned the page and the first half of a challenging 2022 is behind us—but inflation is still hovering at historic highs and global growth projections remain depressed. Markets seem uncertain about what the second half of the year may hold and, truth be told, so are Tony and Wilmington Trust’s Chief Economist Luke Tilley.


Does Quantitative Tightening Pose a Risk to Markets?

Luke Tilley |
Wilmington Wire
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - part of United States central bank.

July 1, 2022 — As the Federal Reserve (Fed) has turned ever more hawkish with each meeting there has been, appropriately, sharp focus on the accelerated pace of rate hikes. The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed raised its short-term interest rate by 0.75% at the June 15, 2022 meeting and raised expectations for future hikes, further driving the debate over whether the U.S. economy will tip into recession as a result.


Inflation Risk is to the Downside and The Fed Will Need to Slow Down

Luke Tilley |
Wilmington Wire
Stock market depression concept. Digital illustration

May 2, 2022—Inflation risk is to the downside for the first time in more than a year and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to hike less than the current market pricing of 10 more hikes (+2.5%) this year. Price pressures were already set to ebb of their own accord even before the Fed set out on a path to tighten financial conditions. The Fed has only hiked once, by 0.