July 26, 2022—It’s hard to avoid the “R” word these days. The question of whether the economy is headed toward a recession has been front and center, almost superseding concerns about inflation. During our May webinar “Growth Scare or Recession?”, we explained our reasoning for the U.S. to avoid the latter, but since that time the risks have risen noticeably.
July 13—Calendar-wise, we’ve turned the page and the first half of a challenging 2022 is behind us—but inflation is still hovering at historic highs and global growth projections remain depressed. Markets seem uncertain about what the second half of the year may hold and, truth be told, so are Tony and Wilmington Trust’s Chief Economist Luke Tilley.
July 1, 2022 — As the Federal Reserve (Fed) has turned ever more hawkish with each meeting there has been, appropriately, sharp focus on the accelerated pace of rate hikes. The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed raised its short-term interest rate by 0.75% at the June 15, 2022 meeting and raised expectations for future hikes, further driving the debate over whether the U.S. economy will tip into recession as a result.
On Thursday, May 12, Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth hosted a webinar, Growth Scare or Recession? with Chief Economist Luke Tilley and Head of Investment Strategy Meghan Shue.
May 2, 2022—Inflation risk is to the downside for the first time in more than a year and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to hike less than the current market pricing of 10 more hikes (+2.5%) this year. Price pressures were already set to ebb of their own accord even before the Fed set out on a path to tighten financial conditions. The Fed has only hiked once, by 0.