On Thursday, May 12, Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth hosted a webinar, Growth Scare or Recession? with Chief Economist Luke Tilley and Head of Investment Strategy Meghan Shue.
Growth Scare or Recession?
About the Author
Luke is Chief Economist and Head of Asset Allocation and Quantitative Services for Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors (WTIA), a part of the M&T Bank family. Luke is also a member of WTIA’s Investment Committee.
Prior to joining Wilmington Trust in 2015, Luke was an officer and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Earlier in his career, Luke worked as a senior economist at IHS Global Insight (now IHS Markit) and as an economist for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Luke holds a Ph.D. in economics from Temple University and a bachelor’s degree in economics and history from James Madison University. He is a former adjunct faculty member at Temple University and formerly served on the board of directors of the Pennsylvania Economic Association. In addition, Luke is former president of the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics, a chapter of the National Association for Business Economics.
By the Author
Inflation Risk is to the Downside and The Fed Will Need to Slow Down
May 2, 2022—Inflation risk is to the downside for the first time in more than a year and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to hike less than the current market pricing of 10 more hikes (+2.5%) this year. Price pressures were already set to ebb of their own accord even before the Fed set out on a path to tighten financial conditions. The Fed has only hiked once, by 0.
Russia–Ukraine: When the Facts Change
March 4, 2022— The horrors unfolding in Ukraine are deeply upsetting on every level. As investors, it is our job to separate emotions from facts that alter our 9–12-month view of the economy and financial markets. The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated at a rapid pace in the past two weeks, challenging some of our earlier assumptions and raising the risk of a more substantial impairment to economic growth in Europe.
Inflation
June 10, 2022Topics shared in this publication are:U.S. inflation on a year-over-year basis is at the highest in four decades due to COVID-19 induced spending on goods, supply chain issues, fiscal stimulus from the government and very accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.We expect a deceleration in inflation in 2022, due to several factors.
Labor Market
June 3, 2022Topics shared in this publication are:Job growth remains very strong at roughly 500,000 over the past 6 months. The leisure & hospitality sector remains at the deepest deficit relative to pre-pandemic but has also made the most gains recently.Labor force participation has improved notably in 2022, supporting job growth and easing some of the concerns of labor shortages.Businesses indicate demand for labor remains strong but may be plateauing.
