May 17, 2021—As my colleague Meghan Shue said a few weeks ago, the economy has been on a wild ride (much like a Hot Wheels track) and we are expecting strong growth in the second half of 2021. Stimulus, consumer spending of savings, and business capital expenditures (capex) will be enough to push full-year growth of 7.6% in 2021 in our view, with a higher likelihood of exceeding that figure than of falling short.
Rhea Thomas, Senior Economist, Wilmington Trust Investment AdvisorsMay 7, 2021—Markets were abuzz at 8:29 Friday morning ahead of the jobs report with official consensus forecasts of 1 million new jobs added in the month of April and “whisper expectations” (whatever those are) of 1.5 million. At 8:30 those expectations were thoroughly dashed upon the announcement of just 266,000 new jobs added and downward revisions to previous months.
March 19, 2021—All’s quiet (for now) on the inflationary front. While we project a lift in the next few months, take it with a grain of salt, as the year-over-year comparison is to a pandemic-induced economic shutdown. Down the road, we anticipate higher inflation approaching 3%, but risk is to the upside—as we expect an improving economy and a largely vaccinated nation back in stores, with money in their pockets.
March 16, 2021—Inflation is on the minds and lips of everyone these days, and the just-signed stimulus package is increasing those concerns. Vaccine deployment is picking up, COVID-19 cases are down, spending is accelerating, and the nation is clamoring to enjoy the outdoors and one another in a way we haven’t in a full year. With the passage and signing of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA) last week, we have growing conviction of strong economic growth in 2021.
February 12, 2021—What a difference a few weeks can make. In mid-January after announcing his stimulus plan, there seemed to be a 50/50 chance of President Biden seeking bipartisanship in getting 10 Republican Senators on board, or the (allegedly) more challenging route of budget reconciliation, which only requires 50 votes but puts limits on the actions that can be taken.