December 15—The health crisis of the past two years has resulted in acute dislocations among key pockets of the economy, leading to a cycle that is unprecedented. We face inflation that’s at its highest in nearly four decades and the tightest-ever labor market. Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth and Chief Economist Luke Tilley discuss the disconnects within the economy, the anticipated trajectory for inflation, and much more. Please listen to important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
December 1, 2021 – Fears around the newest COVID-19 variant, Omicron, have jolted investors out of a holiday lull, sending risk assets lower, bond prices higher, and whipsawing expectations for future Fed policy. We see the Omicron variant as widening the range of possible economic and market outcomes over the next three to six months.
November 2, 2021 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meets this week and the good money says they’ll announce a “tapering” of their long-term asset purchase program (popularly known as Quantitative Easing, or QE) upon conclusion at 2:00 P.M. on Wednesday.
September 20, 2021—Recent economic data have been on the weaker side and is likely playing a part in the mini-swoon we’ve seen in markets, with the S&P 500 index down about 2% from a recent all-time high in early September. The softening in data is in large part due to the spread of the Delta variant in July and August. We are reducing our outlook for the U.S. economy for the remainder of 2021 but still expect solid growth in 2022.
August 9, 2021—Last week’s jobs report was strong for the second month in a row and immediately prompted questions about how it may affect the Federal Reserve’s dovish posture. With 1.9 million combined jobs added in June and July, gross domestic product (GDP) surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2Q 2021, and inflation at the highest in decades, it’s natural to think the Fed would normalize policy soon.