August 9, 2022—A pivotal earnings season is nearly in the books, and the results have given fodder for the bulls. The S&P 500 index is up 9% since earnings season kicked off on July 16. Importantly, this is also a period that has coincided with declining energy prices, lower interest rates, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting for which market participants exhausted themselves reading between the lines.
June 21, 2022—The market has been throttled by upside surprises to inflation, downside surprises to broader economic data, and a Fed scrambling to catch up before inflationary expectations run away. Pessimism is piling up among consumers, business executives, investors, and economists. We remain in the “no recession” camp over the next 12 months but recognize risks clouding the economic view.
On Thursday, May 12, Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth hosted a webinar, Growth Scare or Recession? with Chief Economist Luke Tilley and Head of Investment Strategy Meghan Shue.
May 10, 2022—Weakness in the stock market has been acute. Over the past few weeks, there have been times when it seems that investors can’t find the exit fast enough. The CBOE Volatility Index has spiked again to around 35, indicating the options market expects heightened volatility. (The average reading on the VIX for 2021 was below 20.) But the S&P 500 index has now corrected 16.
April 6—As we entered 2022, even the onset of the omicron variant failed to shake markets’ optimism. With much of the world learning to cope with an endemic COVID-19 and rates set to rise, the stage was set for strong global growth. The last three months, though, have been less rosy than we might have hoped. From the Russia/Ukraine conflict to inflation surprises, investors would be hard-pressed to say they were anticipating this level of macro uncertainty.