September 21, 2021—China Evergrande Group is at the center of media headlines and investor concern, stoking fear around China’s property market and coinciding with higher volatility in equity markets. Below we cover our view on the evolving issues and main questions we are hearing from clients. In short, Evergrande presents a risk to China’s property market and economic outlook, but broader systemic threat to financial markets remains a tail risk event.
July 30, 2021—In recent weeks sweeping regulations from Chinese policymakers in several industries have rattled investors and sent Chinese equities reeling. The MSCI China Index has fallen 31% since its February peak and 11% between July 26–27 alone (Figure 1). China’s hefty weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index—over 34%—makes it impossible for an investor to ignore (Figure 1).
July 8, 2021—There has been a very clear shift in investor sentiment in the past few weeks, manifested most clearly by an acute drop in long-term interest rates and a flattening of the yield curve, both in the U.S. and globally. What is much less clear is what is causing this shift that, until recently, has left equities unscathed but may now be broadening to look more like a classic risk-off market.
April 22, 2021—My three-year-old son has a Hot Wheels racetrack—one of the tracks has a portion low and flat to the ground but then takes off at a steep incline before looping and twisting and returning back toward the ground-level section of track. Where the horizontal portion of the track meets the incline is a motorized gear system that acts as an accelerator and gives the matchbox car a speed boost to stay on the track as it inclines.
The power of the purse is increasing at an unprecedented pace. A third of the world’s financial assets is now under the control of women. From 2016 to 2019, they accumulated wealth at a compound annual growth rate of 6.1%. Over the next four years, that rate will accelerate to 7.2%—adding $5 trillion more annually to the global wealth pool, according to a comprehensive global study.