The price of oil (as measured by West Texas Intermediate crude) has fallen over 27% since its early-October highs, well into “bear market” territory. The decline was arrested on Wednesday, halting the longest stretch of daily declines for oil since the 1970s. Some investors are seeing flashbacks of oil’s most recent collapse, when it fell over 75% from mid-2014 to February of 2016, to a price of just $26/barrel.
November 7, 2018—Tuesday’s election delivered the result largely expected by us and the markets: a split Congress, with the Democrats wresting control of the House but Republicans retaining the majority in the Senate. Voter engagement was extremely high, with a record turnout for a midterm election.
October 25, 2018 — Equity markets continue to exhibit significant selling pressure. Unlike the prior corrections in early 2016 and early 2018, the origin of this month’s rout in the stock markets is difficult to pin on any one factor. Instead, it seems to be due to a combination of a slight deterioration in the global growth outlook, concerns about peak earnings growth, and continued trade tensions.