January 10, 2019 – Volatile equity markets have bounced off of their Christmas Eve lows, heading higher in almost as dramatic a fashion as on the way down. We are not surprised to see the rapid move upward, as we assessed equity markets to be oversold and pessimistic sentiment extreme by the end of 2018.
December 20, 2018 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the target Fed Funds rate as expected yesterday by 25 basis points from 2.25% to 2.50%. The statement and press conference suggested that the outlook for the U.S. economy was one of decelerating but still solid growth, underscored by labor market tightness. However, it also highlighted, as we expected, that the Fed will likely have to slow its pace of hikes in 2019 and is more uncertain about the path of hikes going forward.
December 18, 2018 – Many of our clients are familiar with our economics-led investment process. It is essentially grounded in a view of the economic landscape, which we believe informs and drives financial markets over the long term.
November 21, 2018—We can’t help but appreciate the irony of the stock market’s recent activity heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. As we sit around the dinner table on Thursday, the stock market may not be on many people’s “things-to-be-thankful-for” list, at least based on the past few weeks. As of Tuesday, U.S. equity indices had erased their annual gains, after the S&P 500 was up as much as 10% for the year through September.
The price of oil (as measured by West Texas Intermediate crude) has fallen over 27% since its early-October highs, well into “bear market” territory. The decline was arrested on Wednesday, halting the longest stretch of daily declines for oil since the 1970s. Some investors are seeing flashbacks of oil’s most recent collapse, when it fell over 75% from mid-2014 to February of 2016, to a price of just $26/barrel.