August 18, 2019 – Last week was another incredibly volatile period for financial markets, with trade tensions, mixed economic data, and an inverted yield curve contributing to wild swings in stock and bond markets. While the recession risks have risen, it is still not our base case that the U.S. will enter recession or experience negative government interest rates prior to next year’s election.
August 1, 2019—Just when we think we have a fairly good read on the prospects for policy—namely monetary policy and trade policy—we get thrown another curve ball of the trade variety.
On Thursday, President Trump announced via Twitter that tariffs would be increased by 10% on the remaining roughly $300 billion of U.S. imports from China beginning September 1. This comes on the heels of the first in-person trade talks between the U.S.
In the July–August issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, where he explains why—despite the fact that a U.S.–China trade truce, impending Fed rate cuts, and all-time S&P 500 highs are quite encouraging for the economy and markets—we are more cautious on these drivers heading into the second half of the year.