In the February issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth shines a spotlight on inflation—maybe the single-greatest and most unpredictable determinant of how the economy and markets will unfold this year.
In the January issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth discusses the inflation trajectory—the single most important variable shaping the economic and market outlook in 2022. A pivotal element impacting the demand and supply sides of the inflation equation is the long‑awaited rotation from goods consumption to services.
Key takeaways from this publication:We expect GDP growth to moderate to 2.4% in 2022 from its rapid pace in 2021 (5.7%). However, a downside scenario where oil prices remain elevated at $125 per barrel (WTI) on average in 2022 would bring our forecast down to 1.8%.A tech-led business capital expenditure (capex) recovery is underway and separates the overall performance of business spending in this cycle compared with previous cycles.