April 6—As we entered 2022, even the onset of the omicron variant failed to shake markets’ optimism. With much of the world learning to cope with an endemic COVID-19 and rates set to rise, the stage was set for strong global growth. The last three months, though, have been less rosy than we might have hoped. From the Russia/Ukraine conflict to inflation surprises, investors would be hard-pressed to say they were anticipating this level of macro uncertainty.
The horrors unfolding in Ukraine are deeply upsetting on every level. As investors, it is our job to separate emotions from facts that alter our 9–12-month view of the economy and financial markets. The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated at a rapid pace in recent weeks, challenging some of our earlier assumptions and raising the risk of a more substantial impairment to global growth—Europe, in particular.
September 14, 2022Topics shared in this publication are:Headline CPI decelerated to 8.3%, down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The sharp decline in energy prices in August were the key reason for that decline.Core CPI nudged up, uncomfortably to 6.3%, within a whisker (technically, two whiskers) of the 6.5% peak back in March 2022.The Fed’s preferred index, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, moved lower to 6.3%y/y in July.