In the April issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, where he sorts through a bevy of mixed economic data and brings clarity to the various leading—or perhaps misleading—indicators in determining how heavily to weigh each and whether to conclude that we are on the cusp of a recession.
April 8, 2019 – Indian general elections are scheduled to begin on April 11, lasting through May 19. These elections have the potential to be largely consequential not just for India, but also for the performance of emerging markets equities at large. Over the previous five years, Indian equities have outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index due in part to the current pro-business administration.
March 22, 2019—On Friday, the slope of the Treasury yield curve inverted between the 10-year and 3-month Treasuries (in other words, the yield on a 3-month Treasury exceeded that of a 10-year Treasury), with the 10-year yield falling to as low as 2.42% intraday—the lowest since the start of the year—and the 3-month yield holding fairly steady at 2.45% (Figure 1). Financial media outlets sounded the alarm bells, and equity markets sold off sharply by mid-day.