Russia–Ukraine: When the Facts Change

and Meghan Shue |
Wilmington Wire
Terrain crack - Ukraine/Russia

March 4, 2022— The horrors unfolding in Ukraine are deeply upsetting on every level. As investors, it is our job to separate emotions from facts that alter our 9–12-month view of the economy and financial markets. The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated at a rapid pace in the past two weeks, challenging some of our earlier assumptions and raising the risk of a more substantial impairment to economic growth in Europe.

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Inflation

Luke Tilley and Rhea Thomas |
Investment Management
Dollar currency growth concept with upward arrows on charts and coins background.

May 13, 2022Topics shared in this publication are:U.S. inflation is at the highest in four decades due to COVID-19 induced spending on goods, supply chain issues, fiscal stimulus from the government and very accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.We expect a deceleration in inflation in 2022, due to several factors. They include reduced consumer savings, low consumer sentiment, slower demand for housing as a result of declining affordabilty, as well as softening wage pressures.

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Labor Market

Luke Tilley and Rhea Thomas |
Investment Management
Global communication network concept. Worldwide business. Human resources.

May 9, 2022Topics shared in this publication are:Job growth remains very strong, above 500,000 over the past 6 months. The leisure & hospitality sector remains at the deepest deficit relative to pre-pandemic but has also made the most gains recently.Labor force participation has improved notably in 2022, supporting job growth and easing some of the concerns of labor shortages.Businesses indicate demand for labor remains strong but may be plateauing.

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