May 6, 2019 – Risk markets were jolted awake on Monday morning, as U.S.–China trade risks resurfaced. On Sunday afternoon, President Trump posted on Twitter that he would be ratcheting up tariffs on China beginning Friday, May 10, if a deal is not reached by then. Specifically, the threat is to raise existing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S.
May 2, 2019 – Over the past several months, expectations (and hopes) have been building that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be moving toward rate cuts in the face of stubbornly low inflation, a move that would likely be helpful to equities. No one really expected the central bank to cut rates this week, but it appears that some investors were hoping for hints that it may be tilting more in that direction, and some apparently read the initial statement as just such a hint.
In the April issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, where he sorts through a bevy of mixed economic data and brings clarity to the various leading—or perhaps misleading—indicators in determining how heavily to weigh each and whether to conclude that we are on the cusp of a recession.