In the October issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, who looks back on a nerve-racking month filled with whipsaw market volatility. Plus, weaker consumer activity led his team to revise down its 2021 full-year GDP forecast from 7.5% to 5.8%. He analyzes the four critical risks that continue to be at play and their potential impact on the team’s 9- to 12-month outlook.
September 23, 2021Debt ceiling negotiations in Congress have returned to the spotlight, as they do every few years. Current estimates suggest the U.S. Treasury will be unable to meet its payment obligations starting between mid-October to early November.Markets are watching closely because failure on the part of Congress to raise or suspend the debt ceiling ahead of that deadline could raise the risk of the U.S. Treasury defaulting on its debt, which would be an unprecedented event.
September 20, 2021—Recent economic data have been on the weaker side and is likely playing a part in the mini-swoon we’ve seen in markets, with the S&P 500 index down about 2% from a recent all-time high in early September. The softening in data is in large part due to the spread of the Delta variant in July and August. We are reducing our outlook for the U.S. economy for the remainder of 2021 but still expect solid growth in 2022.