August 23, 2019 – Today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his highly anticipated speech at the Fed’s annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets were abuzz ahead of time trying to divine whether he would tip his hand and reveal his inclination to reduce rates again at the upcoming September meeting, or if he would signal reluctance and disappoint equity investors. Reactions to the speech have been mixed, with some news outlets portraying it as straddling the line.
August 21, 2019—Brexit as well as the United States economic conflict with China, have so dominated U.S. business news that it is easy to overlook three important trade agreements that have recently gone into effect. These free trade agreements link markets whose governments remain dedicated to the preservation and expansion of economic globalization: the EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, and some other Pacific Rim countries. These agreements exclude the U.S.
August 18, 2019 – Last week was another incredibly volatile period for financial markets, with trade tensions, mixed economic data, and an inverted yield curve contributing to wild swings in stock and bond markets. While the recession risks have risen, it is still not our base case that the U.S. will enter recession or experience negative government interest rates prior to next year’s election.