As with hard sciences like physics or chemistry, finance has commonly held “principles” somewhat akin to laws that help govern how investors value assets. The difference is that finance is not a hard science but, like economics, more of a social science that relies on human behavior and psychology. As a result, even the most widely accepted tenets deserve to be examined and turned on their heads at times to evaluate under what circumstances they actually hold up.
October 14, 2019—The overall direction of the U.S.–China trade conflict is so central to our economic outlook that waiting to hear the outcome of last week’s trade negotiations felt a lot like the acute anticipation of waiting for a new baby to arrive.
In the October issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth, presents the firm’s outlook and explains the top political tensions that could impact markets and tip the scale toward a recession and what would signal the need to reduce the neutral equities weighting in portfolios.