Capital Perspectives April 2021

Tony Roth and Steve Norcini |
Investment Management
Capital Perspectives

March marked the one-year anniversary of the COVID-19-induced bear market low. The past year could not be more unlike anything any of us have ever experienced. And while no two recessions ever repeat, this one doesn’t even appear to rhyme with anything we’ve seen in history. The nature of the exogenous economic shock, the depth and speed of the economic collapse, and the extraordinary monetary and fiscal response make the 2020 recession truly unique.

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Emerging Markets Strength Amid China Anti-Trust Concerns

Wilmington Wire
Digital cyberspace with particles and digital data network connections, Future technology digital abstract background concept.

March 26, 2021—We are currently overweight emerging markets equities—including Chinese equities. Four pillars support our position. First is our view that the vaccines have prompted a cyclical rally that is, in general, constructive for global equities. Second, we believe emerging markets will see faster economic growth than developed markets. Third, the Asia ex-Japan region, including China, has so far successfully managed the COVID-19 crisis, in our opinion.

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Praise the Fed and Pass the Patience

Luke Tilley |
Wilmington Wire
Facade on the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC

March 19, 2021—All’s quiet (for now) on the inflationary front. While we project a lift in the next few months, take it with a grain of salt, as the year-over-year comparison is to a pandemic-induced economic shutdown. Down the road, we anticipate higher inflation approaching 3%, but risk is to the upside—as we expect an improving economy and a largely vaccinated nation back in stores, with money in their pockets.

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