September 1, 2017— Under the staid surface of a low interest rate environment and a persistent tightening of credit premiums, much has changed in the composition of the U.S. bond market over the last 10 years. Investors need to take stock of these changes now before the next inevitable period of market turbulence catches them by surprise. Since the onset of the Great Recession, two major themes have taken place in the bond market with little notice or fanfare.
July 28, 2017— The initial estimate of GDP growth for 2Q 2017 was solid at 2.6%—not as strong as we and others expected, but certainly strong enough to confirm the weak first quarter was not indicative of a weakening economy. As we discussed at the time, 1Q was an odd combination of very weak consumer spending coming from low heating bills in a warm winter, some slowdown in auto sales, and a massive surge in business investment.
June 27, 2017—Seasoned investors are well aware that market prices are set at the margin, or alternatively, it is price and not quantity that matters for small flows. Sometimes the small percentage (or “flow”) of transactions occurring is representative of where a much larger “stock” or percentage of the market would trade; and other times, it isn’t.