May 2, 2022—Inflation risk is to the downside for the first time in more than a year and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to hike less than the current market pricing of 10 more hikes (+2.5%) this year. Price pressures were already set to ebb of their own accord even before the Fed set out on a path to tighten financial conditions. The Fed has only hiked once, by 0.
In the April issue of our monthly flagship publication, we feature:On the Record by Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth explains how in a matter of weeks, it feels as if there have been decades worth of change, from economic, market, and geopolitical perspectives. The S&P 500 has responded with the first negative quarterly return in two years. At the same time, the index is down just 5.
March 25, 2022 — An important discipline in our investment work is portfolio risk management. This can mean adjusting position sizes of securities, adding portfolio hedges, or recognizing that the market is not appropriately pricing risks to the upside or downside. There is no question that economic risks have risen significantly in recent weeks, yet the S&P 500 is less than 6% below its all-time high.
