January 31, 2019– Chairman Powell and the Federal Reserve pushed a message of “patience” after its meeting yesterday, meaning the central bank does not expect to raise interest rates for several months. This is entirely justified by the U.S. economic data, the slowdown abroad, and the numerous risks that lurk. The Fed also gave some more transparency about its willingness to slow down the ongoing normalization of its balance sheet.
January 10, 2019 – Volatile equity markets have bounced off of their Christmas Eve lows, heading higher in almost as dramatic a fashion as on the way down. We are not surprised to see the rapid move upward, as we assessed equity markets to be oversold and pessimistic sentiment extreme by the end of 2018.
January 4, 2019 – The past year has no doubt been challenging for investors in light of the difficulty of assessing political risks, conflicting economic signals, and swift reversals in equity market sentiment. Like many investors, we were caught off guard by the violent market correction in the fourth quarter—a drop of almost 20% between September and December. However, despite continued risks, at this point we think the equity market is set up to deliver stronger returns in 2019.