July 26, 2022—It’s hard to avoid the “R” word these days. The question of whether the economy is headed toward a recession has been front and center, almost superseding concerns about inflation. During our May webinar “Growth Scare or Recession?”, we explained our reasoning for the U.S. to avoid the latter, but since that time the risks have risen noticeably.
July 1, 2022 — As the Federal Reserve (Fed) has turned ever more hawkish with each meeting there has been, appropriately, sharp focus on the accelerated pace of rate hikes. The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed raised its short-term interest rate by 0.75% at the June 15, 2022 meeting and raised expectations for future hikes, further driving the debate over whether the U.S. economy will tip into recession as a result.
June 21, 2022—The market has been throttled by upside surprises to inflation, downside surprises to broader economic data, and a Fed scrambling to catch up before inflationary expectations run away. Pessimism is piling up among consumers, business executives, investors, and economists. We remain in the “no recession” camp over the next 12 months but recognize risks clouding the economic view.
