March 18, 2022—William McChesney Martin Jr., former Federal Reserve (Fed) chair from 1951–1970, is credited with the now-famous “punchbowl” analogy, referring to the Fed as “the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”1 Today, the Fed finds itself in the position of taking away the punchbowl again, but in the midst of a party that has been raging, rather than just warming up.
March 15, 2022—The international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been nothing less than swift and severe. The global community has rallied around Ukraine, cutting off Russia’s access to financial markets, consumers, and suppliers. As a result, the Russian ruble has devalued by over 30%.
March 4, 2022— The horrors unfolding in Ukraine are deeply upsetting on every level. As investors, it is our job to separate emotions from facts that alter our 9–12-month view of the economy and financial markets. The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated at a rapid pace in the past two weeks, challenging some of our earlier assumptions and raising the risk of a more substantial impairment to economic growth in Europe.