September 21, 2021—China Evergrande Group is at the center of media headlines and investor concern, stoking fear around China’s property market and coinciding with higher volatility in equity markets. Below we cover our view on the evolving issues and main questions we are hearing from clients. In short, Evergrande presents a risk to China’s property market and economic outlook, but broader systemic threat to financial markets remains a tail risk event.
He weighs in on the commodities rally and who may benefit most, which sectors he believes deserve the smart money, and whether there’s merit to investing in bitcoin.
September 20, 2021—Recent economic data have been on the weaker side and is likely playing a part in the mini-swoon we’ve seen in markets, with the S&P 500 index down about 2% from a recent all-time high in early September. The softening in data is in large part due to the spread of the Delta variant in July and August. We are reducing our outlook for the U.S. economy for the remainder of 2021 but still expect solid growth in 2022.