March 6, 2017— A lot can change in two weeks, especially in the financial markets. It was just two weeks ago that we argued that the Fed was likely to take a pass at their March 14-15 meeting and opt to wait until later in the year to hike rates. Although the economic picture has not changed significantly, the market expectations of a rate hike have changed dramatically, moving to near certainty.
March 2, 2017— Headlines announcing new record highs in the U.S. equity markets seem to be happening almost daily. While this is certainly good news given our positioning favoring equity markets, we have to stop and ask where this leaves market stability as prices stretch ever higher.
February 16, 2017—Even with the new administration sucking up most of the oxygen in Washington D.C., there is plenty of attention still due to the Federal Reserve and the likelihood of more rate hikes this year. Investors are understandably focused on the pace of those possible rate hikes in 2017, which are now inextricably linked to the outlook for fiscal policy. Fed officials have explicitly linked the uncertain outlook for monetary policy to the uncertain outlook for fiscal policy.