October 28, 2016—U.S. economic growth returned to an encouraging 2.9% in the third quarter of 2016 following three consecutive disappointing readings. As we had expected, there was a significant slowdown in consumer spending to an annualized rate of 2.1%; that had been 4.3% in the second quarter. The slowdown coincided with a slowdown in job growth and was largely expected based on monthly reports on consumer spending that were already available.
October 24, 2016–Given the market volatility that followed the unexpected “leave” outcome in the U.K.’s Brexit referendum, it is understandable that global investors would be concerned about any European referendum. Hence, a great deal of global investor attention has turned to an Italian referendum scheduled for December 4.The question on the ballot is whether to strip legislative powers from Italy’s regionally elected Senate.
October 18, 2016–As expected, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped in September in y/y terms. It reached 1.5%, the highest in nearly two years since the 1.7% posted in October 2014 as gasoline prices were plummeting that year. Today’s report just barely eclipses the January 2016 figure of 1.4%, but we expect it to keep moving higher. Core CPI remained steady at 2.2%.